Клуб Волі: сценарії революції і контрреволюції у 2015 р.

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В одному з підвалів ресторану, який знаходиться у місті Києві, відбулося засідання закритого Клубу ініціативи Волі “Руна 7”. Засідання відбулося 7 листопада і було присвячено революції. Точніше – революціям у світі і перспективам подій в Україні у 2015 році.

Запрошені учасники засідання – політики, громадські активісти, експерти та бізнесмени обговорили досвід самих найрізноманітніших революційних перетворень у світі. А головне – обговорили сценарії революційних та контрреволюційних перетворень, які можуть очікувати Україну у 2015 році.

У ЧАСТИНІ 1 була обговорена Філософія революції.

Був згаданий твір Джон Локка “Два трактати про правління” (1689), в якому автор обґрунтував обов’язок громадян повставати проти уряду, якщо той перший порушив контракт між владою та громадянами. Уривок цього твору став частиною преамбули до американської конституції та вважається наріжним каменем політичного лібералізму.

Був згаданий твір Едмунда Берка “Роздуми про Французьку революцію” (1790), в якому автор, відштовхуючись від неоднозначного досвіду Великої Французької революції, заперечив необхідність революції, наголосивши, що революції завжди призводять до насилля і хаосу. Цей твір став наріжним каменем політичного консерватизму

Також був були згадані твори К.Маркса “Капітал” (1867), “Маніфест комуністичної партії” (1848), в яких автор зазначав, що революція – це об’єктивний процес історії і відбувається незалежно від будь-яких суб’єктивних трактувань. Також були згадані сучасні версії марксизму – “євромарксизм”, який наголошує, що суть влади міститься не у володінні засобами виробництва, а у контролі над ідеологічним виробництвом (А.Грамші). А також – теорію залежності (І.Валенстайн), в якій було обґрунтовано, що у ролі пролетаріату зараз постає світова “периферія”, а в ролі “буржуазії” – світове “ядро”, яке експлуатує периферію на напівпериферію подібно тому, як колись “буржуазія” експлуатувала “пролетаріат” у межах однієї країни.

У ЧАСТИНІ 2 були обговорені фактори (та пов’язані з ними теорії), які сприяють або уповільнюють розвиток революції.

Перший фактор – це рівень освіти. Існує пряма кореляція між рівнем освіти та рівнем демократії. Чим вища освіта, ти більше шансів на демократизацію країни, в тому числі революційними методами. Освіта також сприяє становлення відкритого суспільства після революції.

NB! “Коли народ освіченіший від володаря, він дуже близький до революції ” А. де Рівароль

Другий фактор – економічне зростання. Одним із парадоксів більшості революцій є те, що вони траплялися не коли все було дуже погано, а коли все трохи ставало краще. Цей парадокс у західній політології дістав назву “відносна нестача” (relative deprivation). На тлі повної безнадії революціонерам, фактично, неможливо організувати маси на повстання. Натомість, коли загальна ситуація в країні трохи покращувалася і, як наслідок, у населення з’являлися зависокі очікування, задовольнити які старий режим вже не міг, у революціонерів з’являлися значні шанси на успіх.

Ключовий детонатор цього фактору – контраст між “багатими” і “бідними”, який підштовхує знедолених до рішучий дій (якби всі були однаково бідними, ніякої революції не було би)

Парадокс модернізації: економічне зростання у транзитних суспільствах призводить до політичної НЕстабільності.

Третій фактор – зміна поколінь. Політичне покоління – це близько 15-ти років. Коли у політику приходить нове покоління, політичне становлення якого відбувалося у нових суспільно-політичних умовах, воно змінює правила гри, що призводить до масштабних перетворень в суспільстві, в тому числі – революції.

Приклад: Радянський Союз

– 1917р. + 15 = 1932 (“Выдвиженци” Сталіна VS революціонери Леніна). Наслідок: масштабний терор

– Прихід до влади М.Хрущова (покоління, яке не брало участь у громадянській війні.) Наслідок: припинення репресій

– Прихід до влади М.Горбачова (покоління, яке не знало сталінських репресій). Наслідок: “перестройка”, падіння Берлінської стіни

Приклад: Україна

– 1990 + 15 = 2005 р. (виникнення конкурентної політики) + 15 років = Помаранчева революція

NB! В демократичних країнах кожне нове покоління – новий народ” Алексис де Токвіль

Четвертий фактор – розкол еліт. У транзитних суспільствах, хто б не належав до правлячої еліти, він рано чи пізно стає кандидатом на поповнення лав повзучої опозиції. Вони недемократично приходять до вершин влади, і їх недемократично звідти “йдуть”. Система покористувалася ними – і викинула, коли прийшли більш спритні до навколо-адміністративних інтриг. Чимало представників найрадикальніших політичних сил стали опозицією не за своєю волею. “Ображені” ніколи не змиряться зі своїм “нефаворитним” статусом, бо вони були вже “там”, перетворили владу у якийсь бізнес і знають, що підтримати цей бізнес можна лише “звідти”. Або – треба міняти саму авторитарну систему.

Розкол правлячої еліти це – альфа й омега кожної революції.

П’ятий фактор – військова поразка/територіальна втрата. Для модерних суспільств територіальна цілісність країни має сакральне значення. Сучасні громадяни, громадянство яких визначається територіальною локацією, можуть годинами вдивлятися у карту своєї країни так, ніби премодерна людина вдивляється в ікону. Територія – це частина ідентичності, і народ не пробачає уряду, якщо втрачає її цілісність. Територіальна втрата призводить до деморалізації суспільства, а також – деградації армії, яка не в змозі утримати революційні виступи.

Фактор має і зворотну дію, – якщо авторитарний режим отримує перемогу на зовнішньому фронті – це цементує владу та утримує суспільство від революційного розвитку.

NB! “Цій країні потрібна маленька переможна війна, щоб запобігти революції”. (В’ячеслав фон Плеве, або – його противник Сергій Вітте напередодні російсько-японської війни,1904)

Шостий фактор – комунікація. Втрата бодай частини контролю над інформаційним простором може стати фактором революційних перетворень. Влада може контролювати більшість ЗМІ, але для революції достатньо участі 5-10% громадян. Треба пам’ятати, що функціональні масові комунікації – це засіб, а не кінцева мета революційного руху.

Сьомий фактор – наявність/відсутність внутрішніх стратегічних ресурсів. Аби утримувати громадян у покорі, авторитарний режим потребує внутрішніх ресурсів, які, по-перше, компенсують брак демократії, по-друге, унеможливлюють втручання ззовні в тому разі, якщо міжнародне оточення спонукає суспільство до революційних змін.

Ресурсами, які можуть запобігти розвиткові революції є:

1. Ядерна зброя (Китай, Росія): якщо вона є, авторитарний уряд може запобігати зовнішньому тиску.

2. Стратегічні запаси енергоносіїв: газ, нафта (Азербайджан): якщо ці ресурси є, авторитарний уряд може компенсувати внутрішній тиск соціальними витратами, а зовнішній тиск – стабільними постачаннями енергоресурсів на світовий ринок.

3. Динамічна економіка (Сінгапур, Гонконг)

4. Електоральні ресурси – це коли авторитарний лідер спирається на абсолютну популістичну підтримку більшості населення (Чавес – Венесуела)

Восьмий фактор – міжнародне оточення. Міжнародне оточення може або спонукати до революційних перетворень у цілих регіонах (“Хвилі” демократизації (Хантінгтон), теорія “доміно”, експорт революцій (Троцький)) або сповільнювати їх (Геополітичні стратегії, доктрина Брежнєва проблема легітимізації). Однозначними висновками, з точки зору впливу міжнародного оточення, є: 1. Час виборів – найзручніший час для революцій. 2. Однозначний експорт революцій НЕможливий. 3. Географічний фактор (наближення до геополітичних центрів) – надважливий

NB! “Він може бути і сучий син, але це наш сучий син”. Ф.Рузвельт про Сомосу

У ЧАСТИНІ 3 були обговорені перспективи “Україна – 2015”

Після аналізу факторів та чинників революції були узагальнені висновки, зведені у такій таблиці

Були обговорені ЧОТИРИ контрреволюційні сценарії, до яких може вдатися влада.

 

Перший СЦЕНАРІЙ: ТОТАЛЬНА ФАЛЬСИФІКАЦІЯ

Така фальсифікація може відбуватися без відома опозиції:

• Зняття з виборчих перегонів В.Кличка, Ю.Тимошенко
• Фальсифікації голосів інших лідерів опозиції

Не виключається, що фальсифікація може відбуватися з мовчазного відома опозиції:

• Відмова від Майдану лідерів опозиції (про це може свідчити відсутність підготовки до захисту результату виборів у 2015 р. та необхідність більш ефективних дій по захисту виборів у м.Києві)

Проблеми СЦЕНАРІЮ для групи Сім’я:

1. Тотальна залежність від Росії
2. Відсутність власних ресурсів у В.Януковича
3. Проблеми для групи Сім’я після чергового президентського терміну
4. Проблеми для українських олігархів, наближених до Януковича (проблема може мати зворотну дію)
5. Необхідність Сім’ї боротися з олігархами всередині країни

NB! “Ви виграли вибори, а я – підрахунок голосів” А.Сомоса (молодший), президент Нікарагуа

 

Другий СЦЕНАРІЙ: ВИБОРИ В ОДИН ТУР

Зміни до Закону про вибори Президента передбачали би однотурові вибори. У цьому разі від опозиції висувається багато кандидатів, від влади – один. Використовується тотальне клонування опозиціонерів – прізвища, бренди, гасла. Відбувається інформаційне “заплутування” виборця, внаслідок чого В.Янукович отримує перемогу, попри те, що сумарний рейтинг опозиції більший.

Проблеми СЦЕНАРІЮ для групи Сім’я:

1. Фактор часу (його мало)
2. Опозиція може висунути єдиного кандидата ДО виборів

 

Третій СЦЕНАРІЙ: ПЕРЕНЕСЕННЯ ВИБОРІВ

Організується судове рішення, яке під будь-яким приводом, аж до змін в Конституції, чи самої Конституції переносить дату виборів (нинішній сценарій з перенесення виборів до місцевих органів влади у місті Києві). При цьому може бути застосований механізм референдуму.

Проблеми СЦЕНАРІЮ для групи Сім’я:

1. Фактор часу
2. Тотальна залежність від Росії
3. Відсутність власних ресурсів у В.Януковича
4. Проблеми для українських олігархів, наближених до Януковича (проблема може мати зворотну дію)
5. Необхідність боротьби з олігархами всередині країни

 

Четвертий СЦЕНАРІЙ: ПАРЛАМЕНТСЬКА РЕСПУБЛІКА

За цим сценарієм Україна могла розвиватися ще у 2004 році. Адміністрація В.Медведчука пропонувала провести конституційну реформу та уникнути небажаного результату виборів 2004 року. Цей сценарій може повторитися у 2015 – Янукович, при цьому, може стати прем’єр-міністром та зберегти всю повноту влади в країні. Представник опозиції може стати президентом (може бути обраний або парламентом, або всенародно) та мати дуже обмежені повноваження.

За певних обставин такий сценарій може бути підтриманий на Заході – адже в Україні формально запроваджуватиметься “європейська модель”, буде збережена політична конкуренція, легітимна передача влади та перспектива вирішення проблеми вибіркового правосуддя.

Також цей сценарій може бути підтриманий в Росії: парламентські республіки вразливі для зовнішнього тиску, у країнах з парламентською моделлю складно проводити реформи, в таких країнах наявна постійна дестабілізація.

Проблеми СЦЕНАРІЮ для групи Сім’я:

1. Фактор часу
2. Януковичу потрібно буде ділитися владою
3. Залежність Сім’ї від олігархів, які будуть формувати парламент (парламент може бути обраний винятково за мажоритарною системою)


Обговоривши сценарїі на 2015 рік, учасники Клубу окреслили конкретні дії та заходи, які би уможливили бажаний перебіг подій під час наступних президентських виборів.
* * *
Наступне засідання закритого Клубу Волі “Руна 7” матиме назву “Україна після Вільнюса” і буде присвячено політичним та економічним перспективам України після саміту у Вільнюсі, які би ці наслідки не були.

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